Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2059
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 14, 2012, 7:22 AM CDT for 4 counties in Kentucky; 4 counties in Mississippi; 12 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 14, 2012, 7:22 AM CDT (12:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 14, 2012, 8:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Caldwell County, KY, Christian County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Union County, MS, Benton County, TN, Chester County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Stewart County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 761 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 437 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 506 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
743
ACUS11 KWNS 141222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141222
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH WRN MIDDLE TN INTO NERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141222Z - 141345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WRN
KY...WRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN MS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE A SLIGHT BUT LIKELY TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AND A FEW ORGANIZED STRUCTURES HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN OBSERVED. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES FROM NRN MS INTO WRN MIDDLE TN AND SWRN
KY. ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW WITH NO LIGHTNING INDICATED AND IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER
INSTABILITY. RAPID REFRESH PFCS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG. THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 50+ KT LLJ SUPPORTING LARGE
HODOGRAPHS. LEWP STRUCTURES AND ROTATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN LINE
SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH SWRN KY AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. INSTABILITY IS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT
TOWARD MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY WHERE SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE U.S. SEABOARD HAVE MAINTAINED SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. NASHVILLE 12Z RAOB INDICATED VIRTUALLY
NO CAPE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35248895 36128830 37088821 37348736 36328724 34358863
34488934 35248895Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.