Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2018
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 2, 2012, 9:41 AM EDT for 7 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 2, 2012, 9:41 AM EDT (13:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 2, 2012, 11:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Cabarrus County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 415 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -29 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 468 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 205 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
865
ACUS11 KWNS 021341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021341
NCZ000-SCZ000-021515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL SC AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021341Z - 021515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NC AND N CENTRAL/NWRN SC ATTM...WITH ONE
EMBEDDED STORM OVER CHEROKEE CO SC WHICH HAS ACQUIRED LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THIS PARTICULAR STORM
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT -- WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING ENHANCED
SHEAR/VORTICITY. ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERALL HOWEVER...DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGER-SCALE
CONDITIONS APPEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WELL W OF THIS AREA
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE DOWNSTREAM -- I.E. ACROSS VA
AND THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GA...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER...WITH SHEAR
PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THUS -- DESPITE THE LOCALIZED/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..GOSS/HART.. 10/02/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35548169 35718064 35298001 34558031 34458165 35058163
35548169Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.