Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2009

September 30, 2012Curry County, De Baca County, Quay County, New Mexico; 13 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 30, 2012, 3:33 PM MDT for Curry County, De Baca County, Quay County, New Mexico; 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 30, 2012, 3:33 PM MDT (21:33 UTC)
Expired
Sep 30, 2012, 4:30 PM MDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Quay County, NM, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-09-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 201 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-09-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 53 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
201 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
748 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

883 
ACUS11 KWNS 302134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302133
TXZ000-NMZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302133Z - 302230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS NERN NM...THE NW TX AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE A
WEAK COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAS INITIATED. GIVEN
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW...AN ORGANIZED THREAT
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS AS STORMS
QUICKLY COLLAPSE. WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAIL
PRODUCTION IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER CORES.

..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35030450 35570297 36080142 36070046 35680021 34960065
            34560177 34240264 34050349 34340460 35030450

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.