Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2005
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 29, 2012, 5:49 PM EDT for 8 counties in North Carolina; 14 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 29, 2012, 5:49 PM EDT (21:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 29, 2012, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 22 counties
Anson County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Moore County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Union County, NC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Union County, SC
The radar
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 365 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 795 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
796
ACUS11 KWNS 292150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292149
NCZ000-SCZ000-292245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE SC...CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292149Z - 292245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS. DUE TO THE BRIEF/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED INVOF A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS N CNTRL SC EXTENDING NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...AND
ALONG AN APPARENT AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE THAT IS SAGGING ESEWD.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS SHOWING APPROXIMATELY 43 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR...AND WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW /ALBEIT LIGHT/...AT LEAST BRIEF ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH STORMS THAT HAVE BECOME SUSTAINED. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO HAVE LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE
ONGOING STORMS ARE PROGRESSING INTO A RELATIVE MAXIMUM WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-70S
TO LOWER 80S. AS SUCH...A NARROW TEMPORAL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 09/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34598192 35168038 35397923 35217860 34757856 34277919
34028017 33858102 33958190 34598192Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.