Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1948
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 14, 2012, 5:33 PM EDT for 21 counties in New York. It was in force for 57 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 14, 2012, 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 14, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Allegany County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Yates County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1102 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
711
ACUS11 KWNS 142133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142133
NYZ000-142230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS AND FINGER LAKES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142133Z - 142230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD WIND
DAMAGE RISK WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING NEAR SUNSET. IF STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY SWD TO THE
PA/NY BORDER...THEN WATCH PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE.
DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW INVOF NERN
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD AND DRAPED FROM THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SSWWD INTO WRN NY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE LAKE HURON VICINITY THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A
STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS IN THE FORM OF CELLS
AND BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
FINGER LAKES REGION NWD NEAR THE ONTARIO/NY BORDER OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY...WITH A SUPERCELL EXHIBITING PERSISTENT ROTATION
TRAVERSING THE NRN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STORM IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PROBABLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PRIOR TO 2230Z. ALTHOUGH ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...AND INSTABILITY
ARE PRESENT...THE STRENGTH OF FORCING WILL LIKELY AID IN SUSTAINING
THE STORMS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF A WIND DAMAGE RISK.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 09/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42087828 42987742 44587640 45297512 45167334 44697355
43257475 42377631 42027763 42087828Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.