Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 193
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 29, 2012, 11:17 PM EST for Berkshire County, Massachusetts; 15 counties in New York. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 29, 2012, 11:17 PM EST (04:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 1, 2012, 3:15 AM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 441 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 451 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
504
ACUS11 KWNS 010418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010417
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-010815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NY MOHAWK AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 010417Z - 010815Z
MIXED PRECIP-TYPE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF APPRECIABLE FREEZING
RAIN RATES /0.10 INCH OR MORE PER 3 HRS/ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z
ACROSS THE NY MOHAWK AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY VICINITIES.
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM NE OH SEWD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NERN QUEBEC MAINTAINING
A RESIDUAL POLAR AIR MASS IN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT AND NERN FRINGE OF
CNTRL U.S. EML-- MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT --OWING TO DCVA AND A WARM CONVEYOR
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION-- WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINTENANCE
AND INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF MODERATE PRECIP SHIELD /EMBEDDED
TSTMS/ ACROSS NWRN PA/SRN PARTS OF NY. SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOW APPRECIABLE QPF DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MCD
AREA --IN EXCESS OF 0.10 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW
SUB-FREEZING LAYER BENEATH A LAYER WARMING AOA 0 DEG C NEAR H8 AS
THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS TOWARDS THE AREA. ELEVATED BUOYANCY --BASED
AROUND H85-- MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIP.
AS SUCH...A MIX IN P-TYPE WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FAVORED OVER THE
REGION...WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FAVORED FARTHER NE
OVER SRN VT/WRN MA. LOCATIONS THAT MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN PROFILE
THE LONGEST --WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
RATES AOA 0.10 INCH PER 3 HRS.
..SMITH.. 03/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42247601 42747628 43227601 43507544 42807331 42477311
41967332 41777374 42247601Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.