Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 192

February 29, 201215 counties in Kentucky; 12 counties in Tennessee; 5 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 29, 2012, 8:33 PM EST for 15 counties in Kentucky; 12 counties in Tennessee; 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 29, 2012, 8:33 PM EST (01:33 UTC)
Expired
Feb 29, 2012, 9:30 PM EST
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties

Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Anderson County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Knox County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Union County, TN, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Scott County, VA, Wise County, VA

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 242 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2012-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 843 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2012-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 369 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
843 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
623 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
91 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
369 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.1
Supercell composite
7.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

978 
ACUS11 KWNS 010133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010133 
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-010230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY TO FAR WESTERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...

VALID 010133Z - 010230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 48 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH/SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 48...WITH NO APPRECIABLE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...TORNADO WATCH
48 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT/BY 02Z. 

THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 48.
MEANWHILE...IN SPITE OF A RESIDUALLY MOIST/SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KY AND TN/ IS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 03/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX...

LAT...LON   35508500 36098499 36988475 37598331 37648236 36728229
            35508500

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 1, 12:20 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Carter, Cocke, Grainger, Greene and 13 more85 min
Mar 1, 3:21 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrunswick, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Isle of Wight, Prince George, Southampton and 13 more54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.