Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1902
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 6, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 6, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 6, 2012, 5:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 55 counties
Decatur County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hall County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Webster County, NE, Harding County, NM, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 542 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -222 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1212 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -39 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
029
ACUS11 KWNS 062011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062010
NEZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB...WRN KS...OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...NERN
NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 062010Z - 062245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM NWRN
KS TO THE RATON MESA BY 21-22Z. WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
AND ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR
PROBABLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. ONE OR
MORE SEVERE TSTM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD HAS INCREASED ALONG A LEE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL NEB ACROSS WRN KS INTO FAR NERN NM. AS MLCIN
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE RATON MESA AND SEPARATELY JUST S OF GLD PER VISIBLE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD LARGELY MIXED INTO THE 50S WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR...STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFT ACCELERATION WITH
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM
THE STRONGEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS FROM WY TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36310064 35380190 35080315 35570404 36220399 37310184
38710166 40290038 41119941 41289881 41209851 40999838
40669824 39909842 38559901 36310064SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 3:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Cloud, Comanche, Decatur and 47 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 6, 10:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ottawa | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.