Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1871
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 3, 2012, 1:52 PM EDT for 25 counties in North Carolina; 22 counties in South Carolina; 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 3, 2012, 1:52 PM EDT (17:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 3, 2012, 2:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 52 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Union County, NC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Florence County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, City of Danville, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Franklin County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA
The radar
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 576 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -44 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 801 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
105
ACUS11 KWNS 031753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031752
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-031845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC/SC AND S CNTRL VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031752Z - 031845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
APALACHEE BAY NNEWD TO ROANOKE VA. WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW A REGENERATION OF STORMS
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF QUICKLY COLLAPSING STORMS. WEAK DEEP
LAYER WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT ORGANIZATION...WITH
SHORT-LIVED...CHAOTIC CLUSTERS AND PULSE-STORMS OCCASIONALLY CAPABLE
OF DMGG WINDS GIVEN A STRONGER CORE.
..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 32848142 34348084 35278073 36738060 37097984 36487910
35767877 34887862 33467967 32648044 32228095 32848142SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 9:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Graham | 62 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.