Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1797

August 21, 2012Clearwater County, Idaho County, Lemhi County, Idaho; 14 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 21, 2012, 1:45 PM PDT for Clearwater County, Idaho County, Lemhi County, Idaho; 14 counties in Montana. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 21, 2012, 1:45 PM PDT (20:45 UTC)
Expired
Aug 21, 2012, 3:45 PM PDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Clearwater County, ID, Idaho County, ID, Lemhi County, ID, Beaverhead County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Deer Lodge County, MT, Granite County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Lake County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Madison County, MT, Mineral County, MT, Missoula County, MT, Powell County, MT, Ravalli County, MT, Sanders County, MT, Silver Bow County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 235 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Spokane, WA at 12:00Z on 2012-08-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Spokane, WA at 12:00Z on 2012-08-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -48 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2599 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

891 
ACUS11 KWNS 212046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212045
MTZ000-IDZ000-212245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212045Z - 212245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF AN
INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS AS
OF 2030Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT. IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE REGION PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM IN THE
SHORT-TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO SHOULD OTHERWISE ENCOURAGE
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NORTHERN ID
INTO WESTERN MT. THE WELL-MIXED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER /30-45
F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS/ AND ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO MARKEDLY
INCREASE...A TREND ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. SOME
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

LAT...LON   45761576 48141578 48041290 46141061 44111343 45761576

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Idaho, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.