Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1791
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 19, 2012, 3:39 PM MDT for 12 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2012, 3:39 PM MDT (21:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 19, 2012, 5:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Colfax County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -141 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1856 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 122 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 174 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
627
ACUS11 KWNS 192139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192139
NMZ000-192345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192139Z - 192345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INVOF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS
ANALYZED OVER NERN NM. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0-7.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...WILL YIELD A
FEW INTENSE STORMS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20-35 KT --
HIGHEST OVER ERN NM -- WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING...PERHAPS...ONE OR TWO MARGINAL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY SHIFT SWD/SEWD. HOWEVER...WITH GENERALLY
LACKING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER ERN NM -- PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY -- IN JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR
WW ISSUANCE. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 00Z AS NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION OCCURS.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 36860370 36450320 35370310 34780320 33700423 33090485
32490558 32410638 32890682 34720648 36310560 36870491
36860370Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.