Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1776
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2012, 4:45 PM CDT for 21 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2012, 4:45 PM CDT (21:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2012, 6:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 21 counties
Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Creek County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, McClain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washita County, OK
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1741 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -210 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1469 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 155 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 195 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
400
ACUS11 KWNS 162146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162145
OKZ000-162345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162145Z - 162345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP INVOF A NE-SW-ORIENTED FRONT THAT BISECTS OKLAHOMA. LIMITED
STORM ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BROAD ZONE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS COLOCATED WITH A FRONT LYING NEAR/NORTH OF
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. MODIFIED 12Z NORMAN AND 17Z LAMONT SOUNDINGS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SFC CONDITIONS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUGGEST AROUND
20-50 J/KG OF INHIBITION REMAIN WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG.
SUFFICIENT FRONTAL ASCENT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD STORMS FORM...SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 30F AND MODEST MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF SVR WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND AROUND 10-15 KT OF 0-6-KM
BULK SHEAR PER TWIN LAKES VWP DATA INDICATES A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL PREDOMINATE. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STORMS MAY SPREAD SWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MOTION OF THE FRONT...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SVR
THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OFFERED BY
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS SRN OK.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35469971 35519923 35599865 35679802 35889738 36189672
36509607 36559568 36199526 35879507 35579505 35299562
35069659 34889769 34709925 34839974 35019992 35269996
35469971SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 1:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McIntosh and 5 more | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.