Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1729

August 9, 201210 counties in Illinois; 29 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 9, 2012, 5:11 PM CDT for 10 counties in Illinois; 29 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 9, 2012, 5:11 PM CDT (22:11 UTC)
Expired
Aug 9, 2012, 6:45 PM CDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 39 counties

Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Scott County, IA, Tama County, IA, Washington County, IA, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Knox County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stark County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-08-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 351 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-08-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 83 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
351 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-94 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
646 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
130 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

134 
ACUS11 KWNS 092212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092211
ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-092345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092211Z - 092345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPS NEAR -15 OR SO
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES SEWD INTO
NRN IL...WITH A SUFFICIENTLY WARM AIR MASS TO THE W TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS RESULTING IN
LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT FAVORING LARGE HAIL. WITH COLD DOWNDRAFTS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR AS WELL. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND WEAK DUE
TO LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW.
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD AND MAY AFFECT THE QUAD CITIES AREA IN
2-3 HOURS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 08/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41959289 42599294 43149256 43279188 43129135 42639072
            42049019 41638969 41108959 40638991 40389064 40339129
            40549159 41239238 41959289

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 9, 3:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, DeWitt, Douglas, Edgar, Ford, Iroquois and 6 more89 min
Aug 9, 4:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChampaign, Coles, DeWitt, Douglas, Edgar, Ford and 8 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.