Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1722

August 8, 20124 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 8, 2012, 4:31 PM MST for 4 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 8, 2012, 4:31 PM MST (23:31 UTC)
Expired
Aug 8, 2012, 7:00 PM MST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Gila County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2012-08-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 80 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2012-08-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -12 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
80 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-373 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2508 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

583 
ACUS11 KWNS 082331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082331 
AZZ000-090200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082331Z - 090200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
PROPAGATE SWWD ACROSS SERN AZ...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWWD
ACROSS SERN AZ...AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE VALLEYS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK ELY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST...WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S F. WITH THE WEAK
FLOW...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY BUT LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 08/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31871286 32421256 33501201 33941134 34021089 33491036
            32861015 32171018 31281029 31291102 31871286

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.