Mesoscale Discussion 1709

Issued

Aug 5, 2012, 2:06 PM CDT (19:06 UTC)

Expired

Aug 5, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT

In force

54 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

297 
ACUS11 KWNS 051907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051906
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...FAR NWRN
MS...FAR SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051906Z - 052000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. GIVEN
EXPECTED MARGINAL/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING
STORM STRENGTH AND DURATION.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN OK
NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR AND INTO WRN TN/SWRN KY. AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXISTS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM FAR NE TX NEWD INTO FAR SWRN TN.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD PRIMARILY OVER SWRN AR. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL AS THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES
TO MIX BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/BRIEF NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING STORM STRENGTH AND DURATION.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   34769446 34809407 34899327 35089258 35189215 35249196
            35818989 35288940 34198975 33609122 33169345 33319566
            34429522 34769446

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.