Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1648
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 29, 2012, 7:37 PM CDT for 5 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 29, 2012, 7:37 PM CDT (00:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 29, 2012, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Kittson County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Roseau County, MN
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 184 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1490 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1732 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 4.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
976
ACUS11 KWNS 300037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300037
MNZ000-300130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN ND INTO NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 300037Z - 300130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NRN MN THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE BORDER OF MANITOBA...NERN ND AND NWRN MN. OTHER
STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG NERN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT IN NERN ND.
THE COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AUGMENTED BY A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO NRN MN THIS EVENING DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET.
..DIAL/MEAD.. 07/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 48919708 48859512 48379331 47949326 47889426 48289673
48919708SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 7:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beltrami, Itasca, Kittson, Koochiching, Lake, Lake of the Woods and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 29, 11:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beltrami, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake, Saint Louis | 117 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.