Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1639

July 28, 201212 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 28, 2012, 7:28 PM EDT for 12 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 32 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 28, 2012, 7:28 PM EDT (23:28 UTC)
Expired
Jul 28, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
32 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Dillon County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2134 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 64 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2134 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
866 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
4.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

824 
ACUS11 KWNS 282329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282328
NCZ000-SCZ000-290000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN COASTAL SC / SRN-CNTRL COASTAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...

VALID 282328Z - 290000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE REMAINING SEVERE WIND GUST RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY AND WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR
SO.  ELSEWHERE...A DETRIMENTAL COLD POOL HAS EFFECTIVELY OVERTURNED
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SC-NC COASTAL PLAIN LARGELY NEGATING FURTHER
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOWS AN AGGREGATE SEA
BREEZE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COLD POOL SPREADING OUTWARD AND FURTHER
INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.  THE AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...PER DROP IN TEMPS
INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.  THE REMAINING SEVERE WIND RISK WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY OVER THE NEXT HR BEFORE
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING RESULTS IN WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY.
SEVERE WATCH 536 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO BE CLEARED/CANCELLED
EARLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 07/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   33047891 33477997 34467949 35657626 35057595 33047891

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 28, 1:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay and 16 more3 hr
Jul 28, 2:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick and 61 more117 min
Jul 28, 4:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 17 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.