Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1629

July 27, 201211 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 27, 2012, 6:52 PM MDT for 11 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2012, 6:52 PM MDT (00:52 UTC)
Expired
Jul 27, 2012, 8:15 PM MDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bennett County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -50 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3177 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

427 
ACUS11 KWNS 280052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280052 
SDZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533...

VALID 280052Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 533 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH DAMAGING
WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING THE I-90
CORRIDOR/PHILIP AREAS IN THE SHORT-TERM /THROUGH 01Z-02Z/. WILL
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.

DISCUSSION...A 50-MILE NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSIVE QUASI-LINEAR MCS/BOW
ECHO CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND
30-35 KT...CENTERED NEAR I-90 EAST OF THE RAPID CITY AREA AS OF
0030Z. A 54 KT WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT RAPID CITY AS OF 2353Z.
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE MCS...COUPLED WITH
MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT AS SAMPLED BY THE RAPID CITY WSR-88D
VWP...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN PERSISTENCE OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED/MODERATE-SPEED MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND SHORT-TERM PERSISTENCE OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT DIFFERENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE WIND DOWNDRAFTS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY
DECOUPLE INTO MID-EVENING GIVEN ITS RELATIVE DRYNESS...AND
CORRESPONDING MCS INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS INFLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...MCS PERSISTENCE /AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE/
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD COULD BE AIDED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN
VICINITY OF ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL ZONE. SHORT-TERM MCS TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY /40 PERCENT/ OF AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   43150322 43700277 44200263 44700239 44990138 44469988
            43559912 43000035 43150322

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.