Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1595

July 26, 201232 counties in Michigan; Ozaukee County, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 26, 2012, 12:09 AM EDT for 32 counties in Michigan; Ozaukee County, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 26, 2012, 12:09 AM EDT (04:09 UTC)
Expired
Jul 26, 2012, 1:45 AM EDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Ozaukee County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2012-07-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2012-07-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 226 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1843 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
226 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
373 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

134 
ACUS11 KWNS 260409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260409 
MIZ000-WIZ000-260545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520...522...

VALID 260409Z - 260545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
520...522...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 520/522 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z/09Z
RESPECTIVELY. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOWER MI AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN WI...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL ALSO A CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MI IN VICINITY OF
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN ACCELERATING LINE SEGMENT /40-45
KT/ ACROSS CENTRAL MI AS OF 0345Z. CELL MERGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND A DEGREE OF STORM-SCALE
BOWING/ADDITIONAL QLCS ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES SAMPLED BY EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS FROM GRB/APX/DTX...MORE CONTEMPORARY REGIONAL WSR-88D
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATIVE OF A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING...WITH AS MUCH AS 50 KT SWLY WINDS EVIDENT IN
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM PER THE DETROIT WSR-88D VWP. THUS...EVEN WITH A
SOMEWHAT NOCTURNALLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER....EXISTING/INCREASING
QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION...ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF MEAN
FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE/POTENTIALLY
INCREASE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI TO THE THUMB REGION/PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

..GUYER.. 07/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON   43988849 44268638 44398498 44088364 44358246 44148186
            43518187 42548246 42788496 42988757 43988849

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 25, 9:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArenac, Bay, Clare, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 34 more92 min
Jul 25, 9:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb and 9 more6 hr
Jul 26, 2:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Barry, Bay, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun and 41 more65 min
Jul 25, 8:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLa Crosse85 min
Jul 25, 9:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLafayette65 min
Jul 26, 12:34 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Iowa and 11 more86 min
Jul 26, 1:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge and 27 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.