Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1552

July 23, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 23, 2012, 1:26 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 23, 2012, 1:26 PM EDT (17:26 UTC)
Expired
Jul 23, 2012, 3:30 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 102 counties

Clark County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Scott County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clark County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Roane County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2012-07-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1158 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2012-07-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 47 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1158 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1064 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
47 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

489 
ACUS11 KWNS 231727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231726
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-231930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH...NRN KY...WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231726Z - 231930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS IND AND OH...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ON THE WRN
FRINGE OVER E CNTRL IND. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SRN END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND IS ALSO ALIGNED WITH AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 850 MB FLOW.

THIS AREA OF ASCENT WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO AN AREA WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAKLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
30-40 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SSEWD
MOVING SUPERCELLS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   39468543 39648405 39638283 39318148 38878043 38328047
            37798110 37598162 37418253 37488366 37668473 38008566
            38318597 38718598 39058596 39468543

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.