Mesoscale Discussion 15

Issued

Jan 11, 2012, 6:28 PM EST (23:28 UTC)

Expired

Jan 11, 2012, 8:00 PM EST

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Carteret County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

919 
ACUS11 KWNS 112328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112328 
NCZ000-120100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NC OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 112328Z - 120100Z

THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO OVER THE NC
OUTER BANKS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 01Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.  A WW IS POSSIBLE AND MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE 30 PERCENT.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL ASSUME A
NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE EVENING.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A NWD
RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SRN NC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE NC SMOKY MTNS TO THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.  RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE ERN 1/3RD
OF NC--THIS WILL CONCURRENTLY MOVE NNEWD WITH THE WARM FRONT. 
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WARM FRONT...KLTX RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
STORM ACQUIRING LOW LEVEL ROTATION 15 MI E OF CAPE FEAR.  LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS STORM NEAR THE ONSLOW/CARTERET COUNTY LINE
/IMMEDIATELY W OF CAPE LOOKOUT/ BY 0030Z.

AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE /200-500 J/KG MLCAPE PER
RUC SOUNDINGS/ NEAR THE WARM FRONT...UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AND ROTATE AS SLY 925 MB FLOW INCREASES TO
45-50 KT AS COMPACT/INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST
PLAIN.  THIS WILL ACT TO ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /200-400 MS/S2
EFFECTIVE SRH/ AS A MOIST MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOVES ASHORE.  AS
SUCH...AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING.  AREAS AFFECTED FIRST WILL BE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND
CAPE LOOKOUT AND MOVE UP THE IMMEDIATE COAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

..SMITH.. 01/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   34457755 36537602 35337519 34277657 34457755

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.