Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 149

February 23, 2012Berkshire County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts; 22 counties in New York; 5 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 23, 2012, 11:48 PM EST for Berkshire County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts; 22 counties in New York; 5 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 23, 2012, 11:48 PM EST (04:48 UTC)
Expired
Feb 24, 2012, 3:45 AM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Wayne County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 73 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1335 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
93 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

275 
ACUS11 KWNS 240448
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240448 
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-240845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN PA...SRN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 240448Z - 240845Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR
NRN PA AND SRN NY WITH THE THREAT MOVING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS.

A BAND OF RAINFALL AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NE
OH EWD ACROSS NCNTRL PA ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET. SFC TEMPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S F TO
LOWER 40S BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH...SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS FAR NRN PA AND SRN NY. AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES
ENEWD AND INTO A COLDER AIRMASS...A TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD
OCCUR. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALREADY QUITE
STRONG ACROSS NRN PA AND SRN NY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXIST IN SW TO SCNTRL NY BEFORE
10Z WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EWD INTO SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
12Z.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   41517503 41607635 41717811 41987881 42337897 42617878
            42747824 42737675 42697501 42587360 42447269 42277231
            41957223 41617252 41467313 41517503

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.