Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1464
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2012, 2:46 PM CDT for Sebastian County, Arkansas; 18 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 59 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 14, 2012, 2:46 PM CDT (19:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 14, 2012, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 59 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Sebastian County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Coal County, OK, Creek County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK
The radar
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 932 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -183 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1416 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -30 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
171
ACUS11 KWNS 141946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141946
ARZ000-OKZ000-142045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL AR...ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141946Z - 142045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLD DMGG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS PROGRESSES SWWD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE...A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A POORLY/LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WRN AR/E CNTRL OK...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A REMNANT
WEAK VORT MAX AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN ADVANCE OF THE CLUSTER...WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB 8.5 C/KM PER MESOANALYSIS/ AND MODEST NLY
FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY LEADING TO COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR. A PEAK WIND AT FT SMITH AT 1848Z
RECORDED A 41 MPH WIND GUST...SUGGESTING MARGINAL TO NEAR-SEVERE
WINDS WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER ATTM.
..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 07/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35209698 35989680 36089638 35739523 35439429 35019406
34509442 34229515 34069616 34339680 34759693 35209698SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 6:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Carter, Love, Marshall | 60 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.