Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 145

February 23, 20129 counties in Illinois; 21 counties in Indiana; 41 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 23, 2012, 2:21 PM CST for 9 counties in Illinois; 21 counties in Indiana; 41 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 23, 2012, 2:21 PM CST (20:21 UTC)
Expired: Feb 23, 2012, 3:45 PM CST
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 71 counties

Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Saline County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Martin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Scott County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Boone County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Henry County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Larue County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Washington County, KY, Webster County, KY, Woodford County, KY

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1252 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

053 
ACUS11 KWNS 232022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232021
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232021Z - 232145Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.  TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING THREAT.

SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW NWD RETREAT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SRN
IND/IL...WWD INTO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG I-70 OVER CNTRL MO.
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS A RAPIDLY EXPANDING SHIELD OF LOW-MID CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SRN IL/SWRN IND INTO
WRN KY.  THIS CERTAINLY REFLECTS THE MOISTENING/ASCENT PROCESS THAT
SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG...HAS OVERSPREAD
WRN KY.  IF THIS AIRMASS CAN ADVECT INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE PRIOR
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THEN AN ENHANCED RISK OF ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...COULD EVOLVE.  LATEST
VIS IMAGERY DOES NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS HAVE
DEEPENED APPRECIABLY BUT CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
ENCOURAGE STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

..DARROW.. 02/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38258851 39118547 38918441 37848476 36778732 37018883
            37798908 38258851

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.