Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1328

June 30, 20129 counties in Kansas; 21 counties in Missouri; Richardson County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 30, 2012, 8:45 PM CDT for 9 counties in Kansas; 21 counties in Missouri; Richardson County, Nebraska. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 30, 2012, 8:45 PM CDT (01:45 UTC)
Expired: Jun 30, 2012, 10:15 PM CDT
In force: 90 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 31 counties

Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Worth County, MO, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2504 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2499 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

348 
ACUS11 KWNS 010146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010145
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO AND ADJACENT AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010145Z - 010315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...AS CONVECTION INCREASES.  WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY IF FURTHER ORGANIZATION OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NERN KS
EVOLVING ATTM INTO A MORE LINEAR/WEAKLY BOWING CLUSTER ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPARENT COLD POOL.  WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
WEAK...AND IS A MITIGATING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO A
WELL-ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT...THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT -- NORTH OF WHICH RESIDES A POOL OF
VERY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONTRIBUTING TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS SUGGESTING A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER MOVING TOWARD A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.  WHILE QUESTIONS CONTINUE ATTM WITH RESPECT TO
LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF THE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED LEADING-EDGE
CONVECTION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..GOSS/HART.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38999650 39469609 40039614 40429536 40619340 40009306
            39429316 38939381 38999650

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 6:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Logan, Morton and 6 more	3 hr
Jul 1, 1:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 1 more	61 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.