Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1304

June 29, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 29, 2012, 7:59 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 29, 2012, 7:59 AM CDT (12:59 UTC)
Expired
Jun 29, 2012, 9:30 AM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 54 counties

Lyon County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Boyd County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clark County, SD, Clay County, SD, Codington County, SD, Davison County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Jones County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Lyman County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Potter County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Tripp County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2012-06-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 444 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2012-06-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 72 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
444 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-507 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1747 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

938 
ACUS11 KWNS 291300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291259
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SD TO NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291259Z - 291430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING...INITIALLY IN
THE FORM OF SEVERE HAIL AND EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAVE QUICKLY INTENSIFIED THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER MORE
ISOLATED WARM-ADVECTION AIDED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE SD/NEB
BORDER. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE READILY TIED TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL LARGELY COINCIDE WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WNW-ESE EXTENDING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING. SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS COULD
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS STORMS CONGEAL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   45190132 45640012 45399770 44229514 42449641 43080030
            45190132

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 29, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Buchanan and 31 more3 hr
Jun 29, 3:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa and 19 more5 hr
Jun 29, 5:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIowa, Johnson, Poweshiek26 min
Jun 29, 5:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Lyon, Osceola55 min
Jun 28, 10:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Boone, Buffalo, Clay, Custer, Dawson and 32 more66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.