Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1282

June 25, 201217 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2012, 7:37 PM MDT for 17 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2012, 7:37 PM MDT (01:37 UTC)
Expired
Jun 25, 2012, 9:00 PM MDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bennett County, SD, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Meade County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Potter County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Todd County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-06-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2797 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-06-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 107 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2797 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1624 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
107 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

181 
ACUS11 KWNS 260138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260137
SDZ000-260300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...

VALID 260137Z - 260300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS REMAINING PART OF WW
428 WILL EXIST OVER WRN SD THROUGH 03Z. THREAT MAY SHIFT EWD INTO A
SMALL PART OF CNTRL SD...AND DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING
THE NEXT 30 MIN...A SMALL WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A SMALL MCS OVER WRN SD WHERE
NEW STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG CONSOLIDATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. DESPITE THE
RATHER STRONG CAP INDICATED ON THE 00Z RAPID CITY RAOB...MESOSCALE
LIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SO
FAR. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS
INTO CNTRL SD AS FAR AS PIERRE BEFORE DECREASING FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL...AND THIS RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LONGEVITY OF
A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR
PROFILES. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH
THE STANLEY AND JONES COUNTY BORDERS...A NEW BUT RELATIVELY SMALL WW
MIGHT BE WARRANTED.

..DIAL.. 06/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   45830241 45730006 44789957 43229997 43180191 45150338
            45830241

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 10:38 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeadle, Brown, Clark, Edmunds, Faulk, Hand and 4 more67 min
Jun 26, 2:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Corson, Harding, Meade, Pennington, Perkins and 1 more54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.