Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1263
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 24, 2012, 5:36 PM MDT for 4 counties in Nebraska; Fall River County, Lawrence County, South Dakota; 4 counties in Wyoming. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 24, 2012, 5:36 PM MDT (23:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 24, 2012, 7:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Banner County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Fall River County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Weston County, WY
The radar
The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 173 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2549 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -333 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 709 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
856
ACUS11 KWNS 242337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242336
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-250100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD AND WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242336Z - 250100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN WY WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS THEY PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EWD AND NEWD THROUGH MID EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED
UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING HIGH BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND WHERE DEEP
MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. ELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO THE EAST OF A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT EWD
PROPAGATION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED OVER WRN NEB AND SWRN
SD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO MORE CAPPED WITH EWD EXTENT
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING RIDGE
SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PERSIST VERY LONG AS THEY
ADVANCE INTO WRN NEB AND SWRN SD...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL. IN THE MEANTIME...STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. DURATION AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT NECESSITATE A WW...BUT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 44660381 42700331 41180348 40960433 41500465 42770478
44670491 44660381Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.