Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1248

June 22, 2012Phillips County, Yuma County, Colorado; 20 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2012, 10:03 PM MDT for Phillips County, Yuma County, Colorado; 20 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 22, 2012, 10:03 PM MDT (04:03 UTC)
Expired: Jun 22, 2012, 11:30 PM MDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 22 counties

Phillips County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Thomas County, NE

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 382 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -383 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2384 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 239 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

181 
ACUS11 KWNS 230403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230403 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-230530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NEB/FAR NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

VALID 230403Z - 230530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 419 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHWEST KS. GIVEN A
SCHEDULED 05Z EXPIRATION...A WFO TEMPORAL/SPATIAL EXTENSION MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WATCH 419...ALTHOUGH A NEW WATCH TO THE EAST
OF WW 419 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH A TREND TOWARD A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR COMPLEX IN AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 AS IT
NEARS THE LEXINGTON/MCCOOK VICINITIES...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERN FLANK
SUPERCELL PERSISTS ACROSS DUNDY COUNTY NEB AS OF 04Z. WITH A 50+ KT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS...PRIMARY INSTABILITY FEED /ALBEIT ON AN INCREASING ELEVATED
AND HIGHER CINH BASIS/ WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE STORM COMPLEX. AS SUCH...THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND HAIL/WIND
GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHWEST KS THROUGH 04Z-05Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL NEB...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ON A MORE MARGINAL/SPORADIC BASIS.

FARTHER NORTH...A SEPARATE MCS JUST NORTH OF THE NEB/SD BORDER
NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE NEB MAY POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CHERRY
COUNTY NEB WITHIN WW 419 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GUYER.. 06/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   42830220 43130181 43010031 42649974 40849939 39810097
            40000313 40900202 42830220

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 22, 6:52 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Logan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma	83 min
Jun 22, 8:36 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherry, Dawes, Sheridan	84 min
Jun 22, 10:43 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Cherry, Garfield, Holt and 3 more	92 min
Jun 23, 12:18 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown and 65 more	87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.