Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1233

June 20, 201214 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2012, 1:36 PM CDT for 14 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2012, 1:36 PM CDT (18:36 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2012, 2:30 PM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McLean County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2012-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2012-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -27 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-103 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1176 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

803 
ACUS11 KWNS 201836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201836 
NDZ000-201930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 201836Z - 201930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER ND. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF/WEAK FUNNELS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW AND PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ND...IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 0-3 KM LAPSE NEAR 8 C/KM...0-3 KM MLCAPE FROM 50 TO 175
J/KG...AND A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE VORTICITY /PARTICULARLY FROM N-CNTRL
ND SEWD INTO SE ND/ OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE
FUNNELS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW
AND LIMITS THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48930022 48249928 46389888 46190111 48590228 48930022

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.