Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1222
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT for 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT (18:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2012, 2:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 41 counties
Anderson County, TX, Austin County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Houston County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Travis County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 544 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -43 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 546 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
176
ACUS11 KWNS 191805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191805
TXZ000-191900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE/CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191805Z - 191900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
TX GULF COAST NWD INTO CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED/LOW
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SE/CNTRL TX. THIS AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM/MOIST PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PART
OF THE TROPOSPHERE...EVIDENCED BY PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES ON
16Z DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SKINNY MLCAPE PROFILES /NORMALIZED
CAPE BELOW 0.15 PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/0-1 KM BULK ABOVE 15 KTS/ AND STORM MOTION ABOVE 25 KTS WITH
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW BUT SOME THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
QUICK STORM MOTION. ISOLATED/LOW SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER/HART.. 06/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 32629708 33039615 32759498 32249452 31349480 30689513
30169562 29579647 29639757 30849783 32159774 32629708Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.