Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1222

June 19, 201241 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT for 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 19, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT (18:05 UTC)
Expired
Jun 19, 2012, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
55 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 41 counties

Anderson County, TX, Austin County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Houston County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Travis County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 544 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -59 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
544 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
546 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

176 
ACUS11 KWNS 191805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191805 
TXZ000-191900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 191805Z - 191900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
TX GULF COAST NWD INTO CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED/LOW
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SE/CNTRL TX. THIS AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM/MOIST PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PART
OF THE TROPOSPHERE...EVIDENCED BY PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES ON
16Z DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SKINNY MLCAPE PROFILES /NORMALIZED
CAPE BELOW 0.15 PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/0-1 KM BULK ABOVE 15 KTS/ AND STORM MOTION ABOVE 25 KTS WITH
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW BUT SOME THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
QUICK STORM MOTION. ISOLATED/LOW SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   32629708 33039615 32759498 32249452 31349480 30689513
            30169562 29579647 29639757 30849783 32159774 32629708

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.