Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1197
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 17, 2012, 2:04 PM CDT for 6 counties in Oklahoma; 32 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 17, 2012, 2:04 PM CDT (19:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 17, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 38 counties
Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1006 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -79 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 916 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
642
ACUS11 KWNS 171904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171904
TXZ000-OKZ000-172000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TX...NW TX...FAR SW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171904Z - 172000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL TX AND NW TX. ADDITIONALLY DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THESE STORMS IS LOW AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...A WEAK AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE /WHICH MAYBE A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS TSTMS/ HAS ACTED AS AN IMPETUS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AND NW
TX. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOB 20 KTS/ SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG/ A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NE NM AND SE CO/ MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY AS WELL AS
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASED SIGNS OF STORM ORGANIZATION.
..MOSIER/HART.. 06/17/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33389970 34879943 34879869 34569786 34219759 33669738
32399704 31109750 31299928 31749992 32819992 33389970Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.