Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 118

February 15, 20127 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2012, 1:26 PM CST for 7 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2012, 1:26 PM CST (19:26 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2012, 3:00 PM CST
In force: 94 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 34 counties

Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Kay County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1153 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 292 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 284 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

653 
ACUS11 KWNS 151927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151926
OKZ000-KSZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151926Z - 152100Z

A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN OK
AND FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

AT 19Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX. SURFACE WINDS W OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT HAVE ACCELERATED OUT OF THE W AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
WELL MIXED BENEATH A MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN OK.
MEANWHILE...LOW 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD INTO N-CNTRL
OK IMMEDIATELY E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER WRN OK AND MOISTENING OVER
CNTRL/N-CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE
VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY FAVOR
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW AOA
50 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
/I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE EXCEEDING 70 KT/...WHICH WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR COMBINED
WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM SUGGESTS STRONGER CORES MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO ENCOUNTER COOL/STABLE AIRMASS E OF THE FRONT /WHICH MAY
LIMIT STORM PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH/...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE.

..GARNER.. 02/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35239728 36719809 37349772 37689679 37529515 36409461
            35549479 35009602 35239728

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.