Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1165

June 14, 201217 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2012, 4:40 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 14, 2012, 4:40 PM CDT (21:40 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2012, 6:15 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Andrews County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 187 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 529 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 196 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
529 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-512 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2062 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
246 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

075 
ACUS11 KWNS 142140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142140 
TXZ000-NMZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 142140Z - 142315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NIGHT.
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON A
DRYLINE 30 W OF FST...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE N AND S
OF THIS AREA BASED ON DEEPENING CUMULUS OBSERVED IN VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SURFACE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES FROM
100-105F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS MAY AID IN
MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THUS...ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 06/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29630454 30650444 32420295 32280153 30630132 29790201
            29720266 28980318 29630454

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 8:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Camp, Cherokee, Collin, Dallas, Delta and 22 more87 min
Jun 13, 8:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Dawson, Ector and 12 more84 min
Jun 14, 1:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Angelina, Cherokee, Clay, Collin, Cooke and 36 more2 hr
Jun 14, 3:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 21 more61 min
Jun 14, 3:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 38 more9 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.