Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1107

June 9, 2012Kittson County, Marshall County, Roseau County, Minnesota; Pembina County, Walsh County, North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2012, 8:02 PM CDT for Kittson County, Marshall County, Roseau County, Minnesota; Pembina County, Walsh County, North Dakota. It was in force for 28 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2012, 8:02 PM CDT (01:02 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2012, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
28 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Kittson County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Pembina County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 293 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2012-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1066 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2012-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 193 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1066 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-106 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1760 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
193 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
496 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
16.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

046 
ACUS11 KWNS 100102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100102 
MNZ000-NDZ000-100130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 100102Z - 100130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS FAR NERN ND AND
FAR NWRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN A SOMEWHAT SMALL
SPATIAL THREAT AREA...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NUMBER OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP...THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40
PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY IN NERN ND INDICATED A MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFT HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 0015-0040Z IN WALSH COUNTY...AND IS
NOW TRACKING INTO PEMBINA COUNTY.  THIS TSTM FORMED JUST E/ESE OF A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL/NERN ND /TOWNER AND CAVALIER
COUNTIES/.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW TO JUST E OF JMS
AND INTO SD /25 W ABR/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING SWWD
THROUGH CENTRAL SD BETWEEN PIR AND 9V9.  MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EWD STRADDLING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FAR NERN
ND/NWRN MN...AND THEN GENERALLY ALONG THE ONTARIO SIDE OF THE
BORDER...N OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN. 

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT AS THESE FEATURES ADVANCED EWD INTO NERN ND AIDED IN WEAKENING
INHIBITION FOR THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER WALSH COUNTY.  GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS EXISTS...WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AS
THIS STORM AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTERACTS WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT GIVEN A STRONGER CAP
INTO SERN ND AND SD PER 00Z ABR/BIS SOUNDINGS.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48279811 48979821 49009575 48189584 48049666 48069819
            48279811

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 10, 12:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Wilkin60 min
Jun 10, 1:07 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Clay, Grant, Norman, Traverse, Wilkin6 hr
Jun 10, 1:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Benton, Brown, Cass, Chippewa, Cottonwood and 29 more56 min
Jun 10, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAitkin, Anoka, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Blue Earth and 58 more8 hr
Jun 10, 5:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Anoka, Beltrami, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown and 45 more67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.