Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1106

June 9, 201223 counties in North Dakota; 6 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2012, 3:53 PM CDT for 23 counties in North Dakota; 6 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 9, 2012, 3:53 PM CDT (20:53 UTC)
Expired: Jun 9, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 97 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 29 counties

Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Wells County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1191 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -414 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1659 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

078 
ACUS11 KWNS 092053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092053 
NDZ000-SDZ000-092230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 092053Z - 092230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING HOW SOON...BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
23-00Z.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE CAPE /MIXED LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 2500+ J PER KG/. 
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION PERSISTS...BUT LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS SUBTLE SIGNS OF AT LEAST AREAS OF WEAKENING...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WARM SECTOR SHEAR...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ONCE CAPPING IS BROKEN. 
THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 23-00Z...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL.  TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME LARGE
AND CLOCKWISE CURVED NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   48879747 46739762 45239867 44750000 46230020 47260044
            48400105 49289986 49559889 48879747

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 2:50 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burke, Divide, McKenzie, Mountrail, Renville, Ward and 1 more	55 min
Jun 9, 3:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bottineau, Burke, Divide, McHenry, McKenzie, Mountrail and 5 more	6 hr
Jun 9, 6:48 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks, McHenry, Nelson and 7 more	87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.