Alert archive / Vermont / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1098

June 8, 2012Coos County, New Hampshire; 6 counties in New York; 9 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2012, 1:25 PM EDT for Coos County, New Hampshire; 6 counties in New York; 9 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 8, 2012, 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC)
Expired
Jun 8, 2012, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Coos County, NH, Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Warren County, NY, Addison County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Washington County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2012-06-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2012-06-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 41 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1038 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

972 
ACUS11 KWNS 081726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081725
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-081900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081725Z - 081900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN
RESPONSE TO HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF
A DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK...FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC INTO PARTS OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  IN ADDITION TO RATHER WEAK CAPE...DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
MEAN FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE STILL QUITE MODEST ACROSS MOST
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  SO...WHILE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
SOME STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM...SEEMS
RATHER LIMITED.  TOWARD 20-22Z...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION...STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW FIELDS COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR TO WHAT EXTENT PRECEDING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ON THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY
THAT TIME.  POCKETS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LINGER...BUT
STRONG/SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE AND MARGINAL
IN NATURE.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON   47716897 46446907 45756980 45057059 44447125 44117226
            43597311 43357376 43637492 44047569 44397618 47716897

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 8, 6:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, St. Lawrence, Warren93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.