Mesoscale Discussion 1084

Issued

Jun 6, 2012, 12:45 PM CDT (17:45 UTC)

Expired

Jun 6, 2012, 3:15 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

275 
ACUS11 KWNS 061746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061745
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-062015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SRN GA...FAR SERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061745Z - 062015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT EXTENDING E-W
ACROSS SRN GA/AL/MS...WITH A WEAK MESOLOW OVER S-CNTRL AL. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...AREAS OF STRONG INSOLATION CONTINUE AMIDST A MOIST AIR
MASS FEATURING PW VALUES OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN IN THIS AREA...MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2500 J/KG /PER MODIFIED 12Z TALLAHASSEE RAOB/. AS
SUCH...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND ASCENT INVOF
/1/ THE FRONTS AND MESOLOW.../2/ A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND /3/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN FL ASSOCIATED WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE DISORGANIZED WITH WEAK
DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE -- I.E. 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 20 KT PER
TALLAHASSEE VWP DATA -- SUPPORTING A PULSE TO OCCASIONALLY
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS DCAPE
VALUES INCREASE /MAINLY OVER WRN AREAS/ WHILE A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR CROSSES THE AREA WITHIN THE BASE OF AN ERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR...WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND
LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29818119 29338240 29368323 29618405 29558526 30118625
            30358705 30778726 31078686 31178562 31178427 31248238
            31338102 29818119

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.