Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1037

June 3, 201211 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2012, 6:37 PM CDT for 11 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 3, 2012, 6:37 PM CDT (23:37 UTC)
Expired: Jun 3, 2012, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1899 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

026 
ACUS11 KWNS 032337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032337 
MNZ000-NDZ000-040030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032337Z - 040030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME HAIL AND A BRIEF BUT
WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE
SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED THREAT AND ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC PRESSURE TROF/WEAK
COOL FRONT IN AN AXIS OF MODEST SBCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2 INTO NWRN MN...A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND A DRIER/COOLER DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FURTHER EAST...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48699728 49009682 49029531 49009509 48149435 47349455
            47059544 46989609 47189697 47759738 48399761 48699728

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.