Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 102

February 3, 20125 parishes in Louisiana; 8 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2012, 1:04 PM CST for 5 parishes in Louisiana; 8 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 3, 2012, 1:04 PM CST (19:04 UTC)
Expired: Feb 3, 2012, 3:00 PM CST
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Pike County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 653 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 334 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

439 
ACUS11 KWNS 031904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031904 
MSZ000-LAZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL LA / SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031904Z - 032100Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z.  A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN E-W DRAPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
/25 MI SSE POE TO 25 S HEZ/ WITH A NWD RETREATING MARITIME WARM
FRONT INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY. ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S.  THE
EXISTING BOUNDARY IS SERVING TO LOCALLY AUGMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS
SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE FETCH OF LOW-MID
60S DEWPOINTS.

RADAR MOSAIC EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A DECAYING COMMA HEAD
CIRCULATION ACROSS NERN LA WITHIN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME.  KPOE VAD IN THE PAST HR SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
DESCENDING REAR INFLOW JET---INDICATIVE OF AN ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL LA.  THE VEERED WIND
PROFILE RESULTING IN NEAR 30 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME
SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT STRUCTURE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE INTO
SWRN MS AS SBCAPE/S CLIMB AOA 500 J/KG.  AS SUCH...A RISK FOR ISOLD
DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY BE REALIZED THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

..SMITH.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30769027 30609200 30779268 31069200 31669138 31829034
            31458970 30769027

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 3, 6:35 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Catahoula, Concordia, Evangeline and 6 more	115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.