Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1019

June 2, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 2, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT (18:05 UTC)
Expired: Jun 2, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT
In force: 115 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 128 counties

Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Richland County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Warren County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Benton County, IN, Boone County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Newton County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, White County, IN, City of Saint Louis, MO, Clark County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Pike County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 14 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 15 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

194 
ACUS11 KWNS 021805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021805 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-022000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...FAR ERN MO...MUCH OF
IL...CNTRL/WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021805Z - 022000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RIBBON OF
MID/UPPER ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DCVA ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER JET
OVER THE SWRN FLANK OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENVELOPING THE
NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. BENEATH THIS ASCENT...TOWERING CUMULUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INVOF /1/ A SFC TROUGH AXIS THAT IS SHIFTING
SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA...AND /2/ A SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXTENDING
FROM FAR NERN IA ACROSS FAR SWRN WI AND INTO NRN IL AND NRN IND.
THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE AS THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESTABILIZATION OWING TO AREAS OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER ASCENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING SEWD/ESEWD. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER
MEAGER -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE LOWER 50S --
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20C
TO -18C AT 500 MB PER 12Z RAOBS/ WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-800 J/KG /HIGHEST OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER CNTRL IL/. AND...WITH
MODERATE/STRONG WNWLY/NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...20-30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES INCLUDING MULTICELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR SVR
WIND/HAIL. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LACK
OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS.
STORMS WILL DECREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
COMMENCES EARLY THIS EVENING.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40439195 41529196 42369164 42359061 41778894 41308669
            40908561 39828566 38828659 38468802 38348890 38278995
            38899112 40439195

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.