Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1009
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2012, 3:04 PM CDT for Boyd County, Cherry County, Keya Paha County, Nebraska; 28 counties in North Dakota; 29 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2012, 3:04 PM CDT (20:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2012, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 60 counties
Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Boyd County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Brown County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clark County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Potter County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD, Walworth County, SD
The radar
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 886 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 318 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 325 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
416
ACUS11 KWNS 012005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012004
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-012130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...CNTRL/ERN ND...N-CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012004Z - 012130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...UNDER THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INVOF A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS ORIENTED NNE-SSW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN
NEB. CLOUD-FREE AREAS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SUPPORTING RELATIVELY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...YIELDING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING UP TO
35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH/STORM
INTENSITY...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. ANY SVR POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET.
..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 48559798 47019760 44289763 42749862 42430032 42540119
43070151 44230103 45670049 46940131 48170181 48850088
48939928 48559798Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.