Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
311 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
UTAH AND NEVADA.

SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING ALLOWED DECENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATES PW VALUES
REMAIN BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1 INCH. SREF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...WITH A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING SOME
ORGANIZATION.

WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND
SHEAR...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT. ALSO CANT RULE OUT A FEW CELLS BEING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN TUESDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 22Z. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD STILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. WITH THESE STORMS...EXPECT GUSTY...ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW...BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE STATE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. A
WARMING...DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG WEATHER MODELS AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
552 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-171200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
552 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO
GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL DIE OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND END TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY WITH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. THE DRIER AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY MOISTURE COULD
BEGIN TO RETURN FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

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