Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONVECTION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ALONG AN OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FROM BIG SPRING TO LUBBOCK...THEN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH SOME WEAK RETURN ON RADAR IN THIS
AREA AND A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING NORTH...WILL MAINTAIN
POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...AND SLIGHT POPS
SOUTH.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/

DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SONORA TO BRADY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG AN OLD THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. HAVE TEMPO OR VICINITY THUNDER AT KSOA AND KJCT THROUGH
2Z. KSJT WILL SEE INTERSECTING THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ALSO THROUGH 2Z...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED... MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHY STRATUS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
AROUND KJCT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS.
SCATTERED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ISOLD TSTMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...BESIDES
HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH UPPER 90S AT JUNCTION. A WEAK DISSIPATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF A MERTZON TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD
LINE. THE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS
ACROSS MAINLY THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT A SMALL MCS MAY MOVE INTO THIS AREA MAINLY AFTER 03Z WED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
A FEW WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TSTMS. HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO
LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A SOLUTION BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LUBBOCK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WITH THAT
IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY...AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY HARD TIME RESOLVING
EXACTLY WHAT PATH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL TAKE AND HOW FAST.
FOR THAT REASON...COULD NOT JUSTIFY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THIS MID LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SOUTH TOWARDS OUR NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MAIN HAZARDS REMAIN TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RICH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...IN ADDITION TO LOW
END SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE DEFINED
PATH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA
WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ALREADY GONE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN GENERAL THAN MEX GUIDANCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WARMED EVEN FURTHER IF 850MB
TEMPERATURES PROVE TO BE AS WARM AS MODELS ARE PREDICTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 69  89  70  84  67 /  30  50  60  50  30
SAN ANGELO 	 69  93  70  87  68 /  20  30  40  30  20
JUNCTION 	 69  93  70  88  69 /  20  30  40  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-062045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ169-060130-
KIMBLE TX-
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR KIMBLE
COUNTY...

AT 725 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
JUNCTION...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JUNCTION BY 815 PM CDT

  THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 446 AND 459.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3047 9961 3045 9984 3067 9982 3068 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 357DEG 7KT 3058 9974

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
819 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ169-060215-
KIMBLE TX-
819 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR KIMBLE
COUNTY...

AT 817 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SEGOVIA...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF JUNCTION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  I-10 NEAR THE KIMBLE-KERR COUNTY LINE AND THE INTERSECTION OF I-10
  AND US 290 BY 845 PM CDT

  THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 455 AND 478.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3047 9981 3056 9952 3028 9936 3028 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 332DEG 24KT 3044 9961

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
845 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ076-060215-
CROCKETT TX-
845 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
CROCKETT COUNTY...

AT 840 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CROCKETT COUNTY...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OZONOA...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
  SOUTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3034 10129 3049 10149 3063 10131 3052 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 041DEG 11KT 3051 10131

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
936 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ076-060315-
CROCKETT TX-
936 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
CROCKETT COUNTY...

AT 932 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND
HIGHWAY 405 TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD
2083 AND HIGHWAY 405...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 2083 AND HIGHWAY 405 BY 945 PM CDT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3028 10168 3035 10171 3035 10167 3040 10171
      3040 10173 3047 10174 3048 10172 3047 10170
      3051 10169 3070 10146 3033 10128 3028 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 043DEG 14KT 3058 10149 3034 10139

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1041 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ065-066-060415-
RUNNELS TX-COKE TX-
1041 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS AND COKE COUNTIES...

AT 1038 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER THE
INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND HIGHWAY 70...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF
BLACKWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND HIGHWAY 70 BY 1045 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3202 10010 3185 10025 3200 10042 3209 10037
      3208 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 304DEG 7KT 3201 10030

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

TXZ113-127-060500-
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-
1121 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
JONES AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 1118 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 8 MILES NORTH OF MERKEL...OR ABOUT 13
MILES SOUTH OF ANSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STITH AND MERKEL BY 1130 PM CDT
  HODGES BY 1145 PM CDT
  HAWLEY BY 1155 PM CDT
  TYE...IMPACT...DYESS AFB AND ABILENE BY MIDNIGHT CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3264 9961 3234 9973 3235 10014 3251 10014
      3268 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 299DEG 11KT 3258 9997

04