Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
517 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK DRY LINE AXIS FROM JUST EAST OF SONORA TX TO
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY WITH A SECOND LINE OF CLOUDS EXTENDING
FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF JUNCTION TX TO THE VICINITY OF BRADY TX.
SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS EVENING...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM CDT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NEAR AND EAST OF THIS
LINE...INCLUDING CONCHO...COLEMAN...BROWN...MCCULLOCH...SAN
SABA...MENARD...MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES TX. ALONG THIS LINE OF
CUMULUS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS LOCALLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THESE LOCALLY
LIMITING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER LOCALLY MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN BEFORE DAWN AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CAUSING
CEILINGS NEAR OR BELOW 1500 FEET...MOSTLY LIKELY IN KIMBLE...
MASON AND SUTTON COUNTIES TX.

ANOTHER SMALLER AND WEAKER LINE OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS
IS SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL THROCKMORTON COUNTY...MOVING EAST
SLOWLY. A VAIL OF BROKEN TO TEMPORARILY OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS
STREAMING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
SONORA TX TO SAN ANGELO TX THROUGH ABILENE TX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND RUC ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOVING OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND THE DRYLINE...BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN STRONG AFTERNOON HEARING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD ABATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFTER WARM MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S TOMORROW MORNING...WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
90S ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON TO SAN ANGELO. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD EASE SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED CONCERNS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MINIMAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMEPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. THINK
THE NAM IS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN ITS BETTER RESOLUTION SO I HAVE THE
FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRDIOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ATOP THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW IS STILL
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM THE BAHA REGION BY MID WEEK AND MOVE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY WEEKS END. WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION...CINFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY....WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
COMING WEEK. CURRENT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE NUMBERS MAY BE TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 72  97  64  81  62 /  20  10  10  20  30
SAN ANGELO 	 70 100  66  84  64 /  20  10  10  20  40
JUNCTION 	 71  95  68  87  64 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-062015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF A SAN
ANGELO TO ABILENE LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
AND HEARTLAND THIS EVENING.

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