Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
930 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394 FOR THE BIG COUNTRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX EAST OF LUBBOCK WAS DEVELOPING STORMS ON ITS SOUTHERN
END... INDICATING A STRONGER COLD POOL AND SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH.
INCREASED AND ADDED POPS TO THE BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
MENTION OF SEVERE IN ZONES...FOR THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 AM.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATCHING TSTMS
AGAIN OVER THE TRANS PECOS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THIS COMPLEX. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...

THIS MORNING...500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY
FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...
WE HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
HELPING KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA AS DEWPOINT VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH KABI SITTING AT 69
DEGREES...AND KBBD AT 70 DEGREES AT 2PM. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST...AND IF IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DEVELOPS A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 OR 4 PM LOCAL TIME...FURTHER DEVELOPING THAT INTO
A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THE NAM
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL QPF FARTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY...AND ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME QPF...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE VALUES...0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WE COULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE
STORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE WIND AS A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
RESULT IN AN /INVERTED V/ TYPE SOUNDING AND DECENT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THAT/S ALL DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP. WHILE WE ARE ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE
MOMENT...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...WE WILL LIKELY
UPDATE THE FORECAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WARMER THAN...BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S LOWS AND THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY WENT WITH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...AS WE/VE GENERALLY BEEN WARMER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHEN
NOT EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US...WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE EAST. THIS SETS UP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...BUT IF IT
DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR
EAST. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL JUST SLIGHTLY...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 74  95  72  92  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 75  97  74  95  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
JUNCTION 	 74  95  74  93  72 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-152030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
316 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A HASKELL...TO OZONA LINE. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.