Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
327 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO SOAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX WITH CURRENT READINGS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 97 TO 106 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY EARLIER TODAY BUT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED ALONG A
NEWCASTLE...TO ANSON...TO BIG SPRING LINE. MODEST CONVERGENCE EXISTS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED AT THIS TIME
WITH ONLY SOME SPARSE ALTO CU CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. LOOKING BACK TO
THE WEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE LOOP AS
HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST TX AND THE HIGH BASED CU FIELD
TAKES OFF. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE
CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AND
ENHANCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND
MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE HI RES CONVECTION
MODELS DEPICT A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES OF THE BIG COUNTRY. GIVEN
THE CLASSIC INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
BUT I THINK WE WILL SEE LOW TO MID 70S AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BIFURCATING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
NEAR SWEETWATER TO BROWNWOOD BY MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA WILL AGAIN BE HOT AND DRY. I CONTEMPLATED ADDING SOME TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT TO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN BUT THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT THAT I
CONSERVATIVELY CHOSE UPPER 90S AS THE PREVAILING TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES NORTH OF THE FRONT. WE REMAIN IN A
THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE PRIMARY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SET AT ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO
AS OF 250 PM CDT...SAN ANGELO HAS REACHED 108 DEGREES AND ABILENE
104 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS MARKS WERE SET IN 1917 AND 2009 FOR
BOTH SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE.

JOHNSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SE NEW MEXICO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY TOMORROW EVENING. IN ADDITION...A
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM THE BIG BEND REGION INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN
GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING CONCOMITANT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRACK E/SE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING THE CWA ITS BEST CHANCE
OF RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO OUR
RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY WITH THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS OUR RECORD HIGHS...REMAINING GENERALLY
IN THE MID 90S...STILL ABOVE OUR SEASONAL NORMS. MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN OUR SEASONAL NORMS
OF UPPER 60S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND CROCKETT COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 12 MPH SUSTAINED...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED
DESPITE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RUNNING 5-10 PERCENT
HIGHER. WE WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT OF FIRE STARTS. AFTER
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH 20 FT
WINDS OF 12-16 MPH BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TYPICALLY
REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT.

JOHNSON

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 71  89  72  92  73 /  30  20  50  20  10
SAN ANGELO 	 76  98  75  96  74 /  20  10  30  10  10
JUNCTION 	 74  99  74  94  73 /  10   0  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-121100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
355 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND COUNTIES UNTIL
11 PM TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WHEN SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
440 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ128-112245-
CALLAHAN TX-
440 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
CALLAHAN COUNTY...

AT 435 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EULA...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTH OF CLYDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLYDE BY 505 PM CDT
  ADMIRAL BY 510 PM CDT
  BAIRD BY 520 PM CDT

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3208 9928 3208 9963 3251 9962 3251 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 217DEG 10KT 3230 9948

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
443 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ065-112230-
COKE TX-
443 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR COKE
COUNTY...

AT 440 PM CDT...A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NEAR ROBER LEE...AND 8 MILES
SOUTH OF ROBERT LEE. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND HIGHWAY 70 BY 525 PM CDT
  OAK CREEK RESERVOIR BY 530 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
OTHER DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS COKE COUNTY COULD ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3206 10025 3179 10025 3179 10059 3207 10061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 257DEG 11KT 3201 10044

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
445 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ066-073-139-112245-
RUNNELS TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-
445 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS AND CONCHO COUNTIES...
COLEMAN COUNTY...

AT 441 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF IVIE RESERVOIR
NEAR CONCHO PARK MARINA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAINT
ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 1929 AND RANCH ROAD 2134 BY 455 PM
  CDT
  IVIE RESERVOIR NEAR CONCHO PARK MARINA BY 535 PM CDT
  LEADAY AND TALPA BY 545 PM CDT

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3185 9966 3150 9946 3149 9989 3169 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 242DEG 4KT 3162 9982

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
509 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ066-112300-
RUNNELS TX-
509 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS COUNTY...

AT 505 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 4 MILES SOUTH OF WINGATE...OR ABOUT 9
MILES WEST OF WINTERS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF RUNNELS COUNTY
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE COUNTY.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTON BY 515 PM CDT
  PUMPHREY BY 520 PM CDT
  DRASCO BY 530 PM CDT
  WINTERS...WINTERS LITTLE ELM LAKE AND HATCHEL BY 600 PM CDT

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3158 9973 3158 10023 3201 10024 3208 10023
      3208 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 291DEG 9KT 3199 10010

20