Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1034 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BUSY MORNING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO INCREASE TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MORNING MCS IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCS IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND
EAST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN MOST CWA ATTM. 15Z TEMPS ALREADY SHOWING MID TO UPPER 70S
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES.
LAPSE INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SHOWING 2500+ J/KG CAPE VALUES ALREADY
AS FAR NORTH AS I-20 WITH 3K ACROSS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM
RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL LA AS OF 15Z.
LOOK FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWARD MOVING COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS WITH THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE MCS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORT OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WITH THE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SVR WATCH 126 CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA UNTIL 5 PM CDT.

AFTN FCST MAX TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT DID BUMP RAIN CHANCES UPWARDS GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FCST
TRENDS.

UPDATED ZONES/WCN ALREADY SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN TAF SITES...STARTING AT KLFK. TSRA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS TAF SITES...STARTING AT KLFK AROUND 16Z AND MOVING
INTO KGGG AND KSHV AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS NOTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  67  83  67  81 /  50  20  40  70  40
MLU  82  65  84  67  81 /  50  20  40  70  60
DEQ  82  63  80  61  79 /  30  40  50  70  30
TXK  83  65  82  65  79 /  30  30  50  70  30
ELD  83  64  83  64  80 /  40  30  40  70  60
TYR  83  66  81  62  79 /  50  20  50  70  20
GGG  83  66  82  64  80 /  50  20  50  70  20
LFK  84  68  83  67  82 /  60  20  40  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ003>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-031200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-OUACHITA-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-
1051 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL
BE ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY POSE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY MORNING...SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAS HAD RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOILS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.

LAZ001-002-010>013-017>022-TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167-031200-
CADDO-BOSSIER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
1051 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BEGIN DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY MORNING...SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAS HAD RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET
SOILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1101 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

TXZ149-152-165-021700-
ANGELINA-CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-
1101 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL NOON CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN EASTERN TEXAS...
     NACOGDOCHES AND ANGELINA...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     CHEROKEE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ALTO...DOUGLASS...FOREST...GARRISON...HUDSON...HUNTINGTON...
     LUFKIN...MELROSE...MORRILL...NACOGDOCHES...POLLOK...RUSK...
     SACUL...TRAWICK...WELLS AND WODEN...

AT 1101 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FOREST TO HUNTINGTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20
MILES EAST OF CROCKETT TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUFKIN...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. A WIND GUST TO 45
MPH WAS JUST REPORTED AT THE ANGELINA COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR DIBOLL
TEXAS. SHOULD THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED.

15