River Flood Warning 72, NWS Shreveport, LA

530 
WGUS84 KSHV 011411
FLSSHV


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
911 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

TXC005-073-347-021411-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-121003T1800Z/
/LUFT2.1.ER.121001T1428Z.121001T1800Z.121002T0600Z.NO/
911 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ANGELINA RIVER NEAR LUFKIN TEXAS.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 700 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 10.7 FEET THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING.  MOVE LIVESTOCK TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9498 3175 9491 3148 9472 3141 9467 3155 9494

$$

282 
WGUS84 KSHV 021338
FLSSHV


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
838 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2012

TXC005-073-347-031338-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-121006T0600Z/
/LUFT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.121003T1200Z.121004T1800Z.NO/
838 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ANGELINA RIVER NEAR LUFKIN TEXAS.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 700 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.6 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9498 3175 9491 3148 9472 3141 9467 3155 9494

$$

517 
WGUS84 KSHV 031348
FLSSHV


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
848 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

TXC005-073-347-041348-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-121005T2200Z/
/LUFT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.121003T1200Z.121004T1000Z.NO/
848 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ANGELINA RIVER NEAR LUFKIN TEXAS.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 700 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  DURING THURSDAY MORNING.  ALSO THE ANGELINA RIVER IS CRESTING
  THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR 11 FEET.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9498 3175 9491 3148 9472 3141 9467 3155 9494

$$

782 
WGUS84 KSHV 051616
FLSSHV


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012

TXC005-073-347-051646-
/O.CAN.KSHV.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-121005T2200Z/
/LUFT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.121003T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ANGELINA RIVER NEAR LUFKIN.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
324 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO BE BRIEF AND TO THE POINT THIS MORNING...AS THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST...SURFACE
LOW SLIDING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WSW FROM
LUFKIN TX. THIS FEATURE HAS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES LA NORTHWARD TO LITTLE
ROCK AR. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN PROBLEM...AS FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING
NEAR THE NACOGDOCHES TEXAS AREA THIS MORNING. AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST GENERALLY FROM CENTER TX TO RUSTON LA AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH. A SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SETUP
THIS MORNING FROM MARSHALL TX EASTWARD ACROSS THE CADDO-BOSSIER
AREA TOWARD MINDEN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGH...BUT RAINFALL RATES
HAVE NOT BEEN AS INTENSE AS POINTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THIS
BEARS WATCHING REGARDLESS.

WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING IN ITS CURRENT
CONFIGURATION...BUT WILL LIKELY PULL EAST TEXAS COUNTIES OUT
SOMETIME THIS MORNING AS THE THREAT SHIFTS EAST. THE OTHER THREAT
TODAY...BESIDES THE HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
ARRIVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA. HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP OUT SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA...THESE AREAS ARE ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A MONROE TO NATCHITOCHES LA LINE. AREAS UNDER
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CAN EXPECT 15 TO 20 PLUS MPH WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
WITH THIS HIGH WIND THREAT IS THE SATURATED GROUND ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND NW LA. WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING CLOSE TO 7 INCHES
OF RAIN ALREADY...AND MORE RAINFALL TO COME...EXPECT QUITE A FEW
TREES TO BE DOWNED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING IN DIRECTION FROM
NE TO N TO NW AS THE CENTER OF PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...PUTTING PARTICULAR STRAIN ON AREA TREES.

EXPECT DRIER AIR BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH
COOLER MAX/MIN TEMPS. MAY SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EURO
BEING MUCH SLOWER THAN THE AGGRESSIVE GFS THIS MORNING. THE EURO
WAITS UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO BRING THE FRONT IN...WHILE THE GFS IS
SET ON BRINGING THE FRONT IN BY FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5
TO 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE ON TIMING
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A STRONG SFC LOW NEAR CLL WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THIS LOW. THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR BY 15Z AND
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF AEX BY 00Z MON. GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE LOW ITSELF...WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED
NE WINDS NEAR 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE SHV TERMINAL. AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT
THOSE WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35KTS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE SHV AND ELD
TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUE TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
THIS RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS NE TX LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE RAIN HOLDING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINING
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE IFR AND EXPECT
THOSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE CEILINGS
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE...IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE SHV
TERMINAL AFTER 00Z.

VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WELL WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINBANDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 3-5 MILES WITH PERIODS OF 1-2 MILES
ALONG THE I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  57  74  55  81 /  70  30  10  10  10
MLU  72  57  70  55  78 /  90  50  40  20  10
DEQ  72  55  73  54  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
TXK  72  57  72  54  77 /  50  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  56  69  53  78 /  70  30  40  20  10
TYR  73  58  77  54  83 /  50  20  10  10  10
GGG  74  57  76  55  82 /  50  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  59  78  54  83 /  70  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>012-017.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ005-006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

20/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-301700-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-
ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
557 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FARMERVILLE...RUSTON TO
TOLEDO BEND LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...STRONG...MAINLY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WITH SATURATED GROUND IN PLACE AND STRONG NORTH WINDS...THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES WILL DEFINITELY BE PRESENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS...MAY BE REQUIRED TO REPORT
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>151-301700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
557 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A GREATER THREAT TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS CAUSED BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES IN SOME AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF MORE THAN 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS...IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301700-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
354 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS COUPLED WITH SATURATED
SOILS WILL RESULT IN UPROOTED TREES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...

THE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BUT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXCESSIVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SINCE IT BEGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN
COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INCLUDING NACOGDOCHES...SHELBY AND
SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS DESOTO AND RED
RIVER PARISHES IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF LATER TODAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL
RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES. SATURATED SOILS HAVE ALREADY
RESULTED IN DOWNED TREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY.

THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW APPLEBY            31.76N 94.66W
09/30/2012  M8.24 INCH       NACOGDOCHES        TX   MESONET

            TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AT RAWS LOCATION. RAIN BEGAN
            FALLING AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. RAIN STILL
            FALLING.

&&

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW HUXLEY            31.70N 93.91W
09/30/2012  M5.15 INCH       SHELBY             TX   MESONET

            TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AT RAWS LOCATION. RAIN BEGAN
            FALLING AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. RAIN IS STILL
            FALLING.

&&

20