Lake Wind Advisory 16, NWS Shreveport, LA

Columbia County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Harrison County, TX, Panola County, TX, Sabine County, TX, Shelby County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING INCREASED COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH FROM THE
ROCKIES...PARKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND TAPS INTO ABUNDANT PACIFIC
MOISTURE.

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE LOW ACROSS TEXAS AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO COVER THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOS EXIST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL PUSH OF CONVECTION TO BEGIN THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS SLIDES EAST. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM...MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE REPEATED BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. BY TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER-LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE INTO THE WEEK.

ALSO EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A SECOND LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS ARE PREVALENT AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AND SPREAD N
INTO E TX/N LA S OF I-20 BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND INTO EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR BETWEEN 06-09Z. CIGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1.5KFT OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT STRONG WINDS 30-50KTS BETWEEN 2.5-5KFT WILL LIMIT
THE LOWERING OF THE STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR AND SPREAD NNE...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE TYR
AND TXK TERMINALS IN TIME...BUT WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. A NE TO SW
LINE OF CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM ACROSS NE OK INTO NCNTRL AND SW TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT E THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AS THEY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE E INTO SE
OK/ECNTRL TX BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE IN
+TSRA AT TYR AROUND 12Z...GGG AROUND 15-18Z...AND SHV BETWEEN
18-21Z. SCT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF +TSRA
SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME E TX/WRN LA...THUS PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL. SSE
WINDS 13-18KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS...AFTER 00Z ESPECIALLY
OVER E TX/NW LA. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  76  57  69  48 /  50  80  80  70  40
MLU  63  84  63  75  51 /  20  50  50  70  60
DEQ  62  72  52  67  44 / 100 100  70  70  40
TXK  64  75  55  67  48 /  80  80  80  70  40
ELD  62  81  58  71  47 /  40  80  70  70  60
TYR  63  68  49  66  50 / 100 100  50  50  20
GGG  66  74  50  67  48 /  80 100  60  50  20
LFK  66  75  52  67  46 /  50 100  60  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ071>073.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ061-071>073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ002>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ138-151-153-167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

05/15/15

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